Thursday evening brings us a solid 10-game slate of baseball. Let’s jump right into all the information for tonight, and as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
James Paxton vs. L.A. Angels ($12,300) – James Paxton and the Mariners are favored tonight as they take on the Angels. This will be the second time Paxton faces this Angels club, and he ‘s averaged 17.9 fantasy points in 11.2 innings allowing three runs (two earned) on seven hits with a 9:7 K:BB ratio against them. It’s a bit surprising to see his walk ratio as high as it is, as Paxton only owns a 2.5 BB/9 through 113 innings this season. The Angels aren’t notorious for striking out, as they own just a 19.7 K% against lefties, and even against Paxton it’s shown. With just a 7.1 K/9, it’s one of the lower ones Paxton possesses against a team he’s faced at least twice this season.
Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox – 9.5 projected runs – Even after throwing two straight gems, Carlos Rodon is being projected to allow the most runs tonight. The Astros currently sport a 5.6 run projection, which is the highest on the slate. Rodon does own a .386 wOBA with a .534 SLG at home so far this season, but it’s a small sample size of just 15.1 innings. Of course, it also doesn’t hurt that the Astros have been the best hitting road club in the league, posting a .369 wOBA with a .513 SLG and a .363 OBP. Rodon also struggles immensely against righties, and this lineup is chock full of them, making a stack a very viable option.
Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox (Guaranteed Rate Field) – Chicago will be dealing with thunderstorms all throughout the night, so this game is very much a candidate to get an in-game delay. This is worth checking closer to first pitch.
Park Factors are ranked on a scale of 1.000. Anything above 1.000 is favorable towards the hitters. Anything below that mark favors pitchers.
- Chase Field – L.A. Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks – Chase Field is our number one ballpark tonight for hitters. All offensive categories are favored here.
- Citizens Bank Park – New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies – Citizens Bank Park is our number two ballpark for hitters. All offensive categories except doubles are favored here.
- Busch Stadium – Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals – Busch Stadium is our least favorable ballpark for hitters tonight. No offensive categories get the nod at this park.
- Tropicana Field – Cleveland Indians vs. Tampa Bay Rays – Tropicana Field is our second least favorable ballpark for hitters tonight. Triples are the only category that get the nod here.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters
|Worst vs. LHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs. LHB||OPS||AVG|
|Danny Salazar||.885||.286||James Paxton||.447||.189|
|Vincent Velasquez||.872||.286||Blake Snell||.509||.190|
|Tanner Roark||.810||.276||Tyler Skaggs||.569||.217|
Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters
|Worst vs. RHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs. RHB||OPS||AVG|
|Wade Miley||.876||.305||Brad Peacock||.530||.172|
|Blake Snell||.843||.274||Lance Lynn||.579||.181|
|Marco Estrada||.834||.274||James Paxton||.609||.224|
Batter vs. Pitcher Splits
|Gary Sanchez||Marco Estrada||11||4.4|
|Aaron Hicks||Marco Estrada||12||2.91|
|Yadier Molina||Jason Hammel||24||2.25|
*(Fantasy Points Per At Bat)
Pitcher to Build Around
Brad Peacock – HOU vs. TB – $9,500 – I’m rolling with Peacock today because of his matchup and strikeout potential. Danny Salazar is another pitcher in a really good spot to rack up some Ks against the Tampa Bay Rays, but Peacock could be right there with him and is $2,200 less. Peacock has struggled a bit as of late, averaging just 11.3 fantasy points in his last three starts. I felt it was a good sign in his last start, despite allowing seven runs, that he induced 14 swings and misses against the Blue Jays. Up against a weak White Sox club, Peacock should be able to reach and exceed value tonight.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
George Springer – HOU vs. CWS – $5,000 – Springer is back in action and couldn’t have a better matchup on tap tonight. As you may remember, Springer on the road against lefties was essentially an automatic lock when it came to building lineups. In these matchups, Springer is posting a .560 wOBA with a .873 SLG and a 45.5% hard hit rate. With Carlos Rodon struggling against righties as he does, Springer in the leadoff spot is a no brainer here tonight.
Save Big by Drafting…
Derek Dietrich – MIA vs WAS – $3,400 – This is a matchup that could fly under the radar tonight. Dietrich has been hitting the ball well as of late, averaging 7.4 fantasy points over his last 10 games, and now faces a pitcher that struggles against lefties. Tanner Roark is posting a .377 wOBA against lefties at Nationals Park with a .512 SLG with five of his 15 home runs. On the road against righties, Dietrich owns a .370 wOBA with a .508 SLG and a 41% hard hit rate.
Stack Em Up
Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins (Dan Straily) – The second half of the season has not been kind to Dan Straily, and the Nationals will look to capitalize on that tonight. In 25.2 innings, Straily owns a .392 wOBA in the second half with a .579 SLG with five of his 19 home runs allowed. The majority of his home runs have come on the road to begin with, so the hot hitting Nationals club is certainly in line to do some damage here. As always though, a Nats stack won’t come cheap, so be prepared to go inexpensive at a couple of positions tonight.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.