MLB Cheat Sheet: May 19th

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Friday night brings us a huge 14-game slate of baseball with some stellar pitching options. Let’s dive right into all the information, and, as always, you can reach me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Top Pitcher

L.A. Dodgers vs. Miami Marlins – Alex Wood ($9,400) – Wood and the Dodgers are huge favorites tonight as they take on the Marlins. Wood has been fantastic this season, averaging 19.1 FPPG over six starts with a minuscule .170 wOBA at Dodger Stadium. Even though the Marlins have hit left-handed pitching well this season, owners of a team .340 wOBA, they’re currently projected for the lowest run total of the night at 3.2. Wood feels like a fantastic option, even with the prospect that he’ll likely be one of the highest owned pitchers tonight.

Highest Total

Colorado Rockies vs. Cincinnati Reds – 9.5 projected runs – The highest total of the night belongs to the Rockies and Reds, as they begin their series at Great American Ballpark. The Rockies are the slight favorites here as they take on Lisalverto Bonilla in his second start of the season. Bonilla made five starts down in Triple-A this season and he struggled his way through 25.2 innings allowing 21 runs (16 earned) on 36 hits with a 27:9 K:BB ratio with six home runs. The Rockies haven’t exactly been hitting well on the road, owning just a .288 wOBA with a .369 SLG, but the hitters’ ballpark will certainly help tonight if the weather holds out.

Weather Concerns

Colorado Rockies vs. Cincinnati Reds (Great American Ballpark) – A chance of rain/thunderstorms will be an issue around first pitch, but it does end up clearing out later on the evening. This game will be a bit tricky, so keep an eye on the forecast.

San Francisco Giants vs. St. Louis Cardinals (Busch Stadium) – Rain starts right around first pitch and continues throughout the night. This game has a legitimate chance of being PPD. Double check this one closer to first pitch.

Park Factors

Park Factors are ranked on a scale of 1.000. Anything above 1.000 is favorable towards the hitters. Anything below that mark favors pitchers.

  • SunTrust Park – Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves – SunTrust Park is our most favorable ballpark for hitters tonight. Last season, runs, singles and walks were all favored here.
  • Target Field – Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins – Target Field checks in as our number two ballpark for hitters tonight as the Twins are set to host the Royals. All offensive categories except walks were favored here last season.
  • Dodger Stadium – Miami Marlins vs. L.A. Dodgers – Dodger Stadium is the worst ballpark on this slate for hitters, as it almost always is. No offensive categories were favored here last season.
  • Oakland Coliseum – Boston Red Sox – vs. Oakland A’s -The Coliseum is one of the least favored ballparks in all of baseball for hitters, and it is our number two tonight. Triples were the only category favored here last year.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHBOPSAVGBest vs. LHBOPSAVG
Hector Santiago1.476.429Alex Wood.526.205
Matt Moore1.196.378Charlie Morton.537.189
Trevor Bauer.974.296Jeremy Hellickson.570.173

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHBOPSAVGBest vs. RHBOPSAVG
Jered Weaver1.010.287Chris Sale.421.154
Tyler Anderson.952 .306Alex Wood.470.179
Ricky Nolasco.931.281Hector Santiago.558.208

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

HitterOpposing SPABFP/AB*
Chris DavisAaron Sanchez184.77
Adam RosalesChris Sale173.29
Jayson WerthR.A. Dickey272.85

*(Fantasy Points Per At Bat)


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Luis Severino – NYY vs. TB – $8,800 – Severino feels extremely cheap tonight going up against a Rays team that leads the league in K%. Severino has essentially been boom-or-bust, as he’s scored -2.8, 28.8, 2.8 and 28.8 DK fantasy points in his last four games. Tonight though, he’ll face a Rays team that he scored 34.2 DK fantasy points against earlier this season with 11 strikeouts through seven innings. With this game taking place at Tropicana Field, you have to like your chances with Severino with the strikeout upside.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

J.D. Martinez – DET vs. TEX – $4,700 – No one is hotter than Martinez at the plate right now, as the Tigers’ outfielder has hit five home runs in his first six games of the season. He’ll have a great opportunity to continue that streak tonight as he takes on Nick Martinez at home. Martinez hasn’t pitched much this season, but he’s already allowing a .470 wOBA on the road that jumps up to a .522 against righties. In 11.1 road innings, Martinez has allowed five home runs with three of those coming off a right-handed bat. Until Martinez cools off, you have to consider him.

Save Big by Drafting…

Josh Reddick – HOU vs. CLE – $3,600 – Reddick is a cheap option with a fantastic matchup tonight against Trevor Bauer. Facing left-handed batters this season, Bauer has struggled, allowing a .405 wOBA with a .620 SLG and a .354 OBP with six of his eight home runs allowed. Meanwhile, Reddick has flourished at home this season, owning a .477 wOBA against righties with a .711 SLG and a .440 OBP.

Stack Em Up

Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers (Nick Martinez) – The Tigers have made their way into my top stack many times this week and tonight is no exception. As I mentioned earlier, Martinez has struggled in his two road starts this season with those five home runs allowed in just 11.1 innings. The Tigers remain one of the best hitting ball clubs at home this season, owning a .346 wOBA with a .452 SLG and a .349 OBP. With so many power bats in this lineup, it should be only a matter of time before Martinez starts giving up the big fly.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.