NASCAR® Rankings: Overton's 301

WATCH: PRICE CHECK OVERTON’S 301


Rankings below are based on a mixture of expected output and DraftKings’ NASCAR salaries for that day. The ordering is not based on highest projected fantasy totals, but rather by value of each driver.

(fppk = average fantasy points per $1,000 of salary. The typical median fppk for a 2016 race was in the 3s. Plate tracks tend to be lower and short tracks tend to run higher due to the amount of laps.)

RankDriverSalary
1Martin Truex, Jr.$10,300
2Kyle Busch$10,500
3Kyle Larson$9,700
4Joey Logano$8,800
5Brad Keselowski$9,900

1. Martin Truex, Jr. ($10,300) – Throw out the plate tracks and the road course, and in other 14 races, Racer X averages 78 fantasy points per race. He scored 89 points and 67 points in the two New Hampshire races in 2016. (6.4 fppk)

2. Kyle Busch ($10,500) – In the last eight New Hampshire races, Kyle Busch has five top-5 finishes. Earlier this season at Martinsville (a comparable short, flat track), Busch scored 164 fantasy points. (5.2 fppk)

3. Kyle Larson ($9,700) – Speed Racer hasn’t broken through yet at New Hampshire, but that could have been said for a lot of tracks this season. Kyle Larson ranks #1 in terms of average running position at the short track in 2017. (5.9 fppk)

4. Joey Logano ($8,800) – This is considered Logano’s home track even though he moved away from New England in his tweens. If he calls it his home track, then it’s his home track. It looks like home. Logano has four top-5 finishes in his last five races at New Hampshire. (3.6 fppk)

5. Brad Keselowski ($9,900) – Short tracks have a rhythm to them. If a driver can master the braking and acceleration zones, then they’re always going to be good at that track. BK has a top-15 in each of his last 11 New Hampshire races (eight top-10s). (4.1 fppk)


RankDriverSalary
6Kevin Harvick$10,000
7Matt Kenseth$9,300
8Chase Elliott$9,100
9Dale Earnhardt, Jr.$8,000
10Jimmie Johnson$9,600

6. Kevin Harvick ($10,000) – Sometimes it’s not just the driver’s stats at a track. Harvick has four top-5s in his last five races at New Hampshire. It helps when your crew chief knows New Hampshire. Rodney Childers built a winning New Hampshire car for Brian Vickers in 2013. (4.2 fppk)

7. Matt Kenseth ($9,300) – Let’s make this tricky. Kenseth’s stats at New Hampshire are amazing (73 fantasy points per race over the last seven races). However, Kyle Busch reported that Kenseth’s team has been underfunded this season. That explains the mediocre results. (3.0 fppk)

8. Chase Elliott ($9,100) – He’s just a smidge slower than Kyle Larson at the shorts tracks this season, but at the short, flat tracks Elliot has been better. The last time Elliot led laps was Martinsville. (4.0 fppk)

9. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. ($8,000) – With the way the plate races have been going, Junior might be remembered as a short, flat track driver. He has won at Phoenix and Martinsville within the last several years. At New Hampshire, Junior has four top-10s in his last five races. (2.5 fppk)

10. Jimmie Johnson ($9,600) – A two-time 2017 short track winner is not a lock this week. Those wins were at Bristol and Dover. High banked, short tracks that are not that similar to the Magic Mile. Johnson has just one win at New Hampshire in the last 13 years. (4.3 fppk)


RankDriverSalary
11Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.$7,400
12Denny Hamlin$9,800
13Jamie McMurray$8,600
14Clint Bowyer$8,700
15Kurt Busch$8,100

11. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($7,400) – The late race restart phenomenon is no more apparent than in Ricky Stenhouse’s stats at the short tracks. In three of the five short track races this season, Stenhouse has finished at least nine spots better than his average running position during each race. (4.4 fppk)

12. Denny Hamlin ($9,800)JGR is heating up and Hamlin has two consecutive top-5 finishes at the regular ovals. He’s always been considered a strong short track racer. New Hampshire may not be his best track, but 13 top-10s in 22 races looks pretty good. (3.7 fppk)

13. Jamie McMurray ($8,600) – His top-10 starting position scares a lot of fantasy players away. He can’t score enough points to justify his salary, but he doesn’t finish worse than 15th. Unfortunately, one of the two times that he did finish poorly was at Martinsville. (3.7 fppk)

14. Clint Bowyer ($8,700) – It’s hard to imagine Bowyer leading laps. The top tier is just too good, but he can earn a top-10. Bowyer has a top-15 average running position in four of the five short track races this season. (4.0 fppk)

15. Kurt Busch ($8,100) – This has been a bad year for Kurt Busch at the short tracks. The lone bright spot was an 8th place finish at Richmond, but his average running position was 18th. The other short track races were finishes of 25th place or worse. (2.7 fppk)


RankDriverSalary
16Ryan Blaney$8,300
17Austin Dillon$7,000
18Ryan Newman$7,300
19Aric Almirola$6,600
20Kasey Kahne$7,600

16. Ryan Blaney ($8,300) – It appears that Ryan Blaney is not a good short track racer. He’s finished 23rd or worse in every short track race this season. However, his average running position at the short tracks is 18th. (2.9 fppk)

17. Austin Dillon ($7,000) – This is just the second time that Dillon has been priced at $7,000 since week six of the 2016 season. Dillon is better than this price tag. The concern with Dillon is that they are racing conservatively with a playoff spot locked up. (3.4 fppk)

18. Ryan Newman ($7,300) – Here are some typical Newman stats. In the last 10 New Hampshire races, Newman has nine top-20 finishes. The fear is that RCR is being too conservative, but New Hampshire is a playoff race. They need to test things out, and that could be good or bad. (3.9 fppk)

19. Aric Almirola ($6,600) – Is it too soon to roster Almirola? If he wasn’t healthy, he wouldn’t be racing. If two months away from the car erases your driving skills, then every offseason, the drivers would be starting all over. (4.9 fppk)

20. Kasey Kahne ($7,600) – The track history looks good. Kahne’s average running position is inside the top-15 in five of the last six New Hampshire races. He’s not safe in 50/50 contests. Kahne only cares about wins. It was checkers or wreckers at Kentucky, and he didn’t get the win. (3.2 fppk)

 


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