NBA Targets: February 16th

WATCH: 3 IN THE KEY ISAIAH THOMAS


The NBA rolls into the All-Star Break with a two-game slate, so here are my favorite studs and values for tonight’s action. If you have any questions, reach out to me on Twitter @JasonWalkerDFS.

Point Guard

Stud

John Wall – WAS at IND – $10,700 – The Pacers have the worst defensive rating over the last five games, giving up an incredible 123 points per 100 possessions. Wall has averaged 91 touches per game over his last five games, seventh in the league over that time. The projected game total is a strong 217 and the spread is 2.5 points in Washington’s favor, meaning the players are expected to get their usual run.

Isaiah Thomas – BOS at CHI – $9,300 – Chicago has the fourth-worst defense over the last five games, and Thomas, like Wall, gets a lot of touches per game, ranking in the top 10 for the season. Thomas has been over 33 percent raw usage in each of his last nine games.

Other Options – Jeff Teague ($7,400)

Value

Marcus Smart – BOS at CHI – $5,700 – He is not likely to get eight steals again like his last game, which thrust him over the 50 DK point mark, but he is getting mid 30s minutes with low 20s raw usage, so a 35 DK point game is certainly in play.


Shooting Guard

Stud

Bradley Beal – WAS at IND – $7,100 – Beal gets that softer Indiana defense and a workload of 35-37 minutes nightly, giving him a 45-50 DK point ceiling in this slightly positive individual matchup. If John Wall wants to throttle back at all heading into a busy All-Star break, Beal should be the one who benefits.

UPDATE: Dwyane Wade is OUT tonight. Jimmy Butler will play.

Dwyane Wade – CHI vs. BOS – $6,700 – He is questionable right now, but did put in a half practice yesterday, something unlikely if he was intending to coast into the All-Star break. Wade is not playing in the All-Star Game, so he could go into the break in a blaze of usage and scoring, as he has already shown he is a 30 percent raw usage play every night.

Value

Monta Ellis – IND vs. WAS – $3,700 – Monta has quietly been posting low 30s minutes in each of the last three games, scoring 26.50, 22 and 28.50 DK points in those games. This game is projected to be high-scoring, so that should give Monta a chance to do the same once more before the break.


Small Forward

Stud

Paul George – IND vs. WAS – $8,200 – George wilted against LeBron in prime time last night, but has posted 40+ DK point games in four of his last six games and will find the Washington Wizards SF defense far more accommodating than LeBron’s.

Jimmy Butler – CHI vs. BOS – $9,100 – With this game expected to be close and a projected game total of 212, that indicates a full game from Butler, who has been a do it all menace for the Bulls, despite battling recent injuries. Butler managed 47 DK points his last game despite only hitting two shots all game.

Value

Jae Crowder – BOS at CHI – $5,600 – Crowder is playing solid mid-30s minutes (cash game goodness) clearing 30+ DK points in seven of his last 11 games. He will be active defensively, likely covering Butler, so there is an opportunity for defensive points against a high usage cover like that.

Other Options – Glenn Robinson ($3,000)


Power Forward

Stud

Markieff Morris – WAS at IND – $6,900 – You need almost 45 DK points to make Morris work in tournaments, but he delivered 48 against Indiana just two games ago, so he has shown he can get there against this team. Morris has settled into 35-45 DK point player over his last ten games, staying on the floor long enough (low 30s minutes average over last 10 games) and using enough possessions (25 percent raw usage over last ten games) to produce at his priced level.

Value

Kelly Olynyk – BOS at CHI – $4,500 – Kelly O has run of seven straight 20+ DK point games, including a 30 and 40 DK point game in there. He is likely going to give the lumbering Bulls bigs (Lopez, Felicio, Mirotic) trouble with his outside game.

Other Options – Kevin Seraphin ($3,500)


Center

Stud

Marcin Gortat – WAS at IND – $6,000 – Only blowing out the Thunder their last game out stopped Gortat’s eight game run of 35.50 DK or more points. His matchup against the Pacers is a plus individual matchup, and his minutes are sound, so I think he’s a great target in both cash and tournament games tonight.

Value

Myles Turner – IND vs. WAS – $5,500 – It is a positive matchup for Turner as well, and despite his price dropping he has made solid production over his last three games, scoring 33, 33.50 and 27.25. As mentioned, with a close, high scoring game expected, at $5.5K, Turner has head room to really exceed value tonight.

Other Options – Robin Lopez ($4,400)

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.