NFL WR Breakdown: Week 7

With the breakout performances from Andre Holmes and Mohamed Sanu, it was definitely beneficial to use a “high/low” strategy at wide receiver in Week 6. A Demaryius Thomas/Andre Holmes/Mohamed Sanu trio would have been very workable from a financial perspective (you could have even added Jordy Nelson into the mix as a flex play and still been in good shape at other positions).

In general, this strategy might be a smart one for tournaments because, unlike quarterbacks and running backs, wide receivers aren’t so reliant on a heavy workload for production. It helps, of course, but you can often find wide receiver talent pretty cheaply (as with Holmes and Sanu) that allows you to go big elsewhere. As I say every week, identifying that wide receiver talent is really important on DraftKings-a full PPR site with a flex.

So let’s take a look at the Week 7 wide receiver options to figure out who’s in play in the Millionaire Maker.

 

Top Five Wide Receivers

Jordy Nelson, Green Bay vs Carolina, $8200 – The Panthers have allowed an average of 303 passing yards over the past three weeks, and now they face one of the hottest passing attacks in the league. Nelson might initially appear overpriced as the most expensive receiver on DraftKings, but I don’t think that’s the case given his athleticism, offensive system, and matchup. My hunch is that some slightly cheaper receivers will have higher usage when they shouldn’t.

 

Demaryius Thomas, Denver vs San Francisco, $8000 – This is going to be one of the most difficult choices for users this week because Thomas is on fire right now with 18 receptions, 350 yards, and three touchdowns in the past two games alone, yet the matchup against the Niners is a difficult one.

However, I actually kind of like this situation given that the Niners have very much benefited from favorable game scripts this year (when it comes to their pass defense, anyway). I don’t think their defense is as good as the numbers suggest (still good, though), so this could be a situation very comparable to Thomas two weeks ago squaring off against Patrick Peterson and the Cards.

 

Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh vs Houston, $7900 – To give you an idea of Brown’s level of consistency, consider that some of the hype surrounding him has died down the past two weeks. He hasn’t scored in either game, yet has still averaged 16.1 points. He’s hands-down the safest wide receiver option in the league and a valuable asset in cash games.

 

Julio Jones, Atlanta at Baltimore, $7800 – Jones might be underpriced relative to this talent, but I have serious concerns about the Falcons’ offensive line right now. Their inability to protect Matt Ryan severely limits Jones’ ability to get downfield.

One thing that might work in Jones’ favor is if the Falcons counter their pass protection woes with a lot of short passes. Look out for any minor news throughout the week about Atlanta possibly using Jones on more screens this week.

 

Dez Bryant, Dallas vs NY Giants, $7500 – Bryant is basically the anti-Antonio Brown. He has very clear upside, but there are a few factors that make him a very volatile play from week to week. The first is that the Cowboys aren’t good at utilizing him when he’s double-teamed (and there are other options for Tony Romo to throw to). The second reason is that, with this (very strange) running game resurgence in Dallas, Bryant can’t really overcome moderate efficiency with a huge workload.

Five Others to Consider

T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis vs Cincinnati, $7000

Mohamed Sanu, Cincinnati at Indianapolis, $7000

If A.J. Green plays, I think Sanu could end up being the worst value at the wide receiver position in Week 7 and not really worth consideration. He costs more than both Bears receivers; even after last week’s performance, that’s a bit much.

If Green doesn’t play, I still think Sanu is slightly overpriced, but I actually kind of like that for the Millionaire Maker. You’re paying up to be contrarian if you roster Sanu in that scenario because you know usage will be low. The key, though, is that Sanu is actually a talented receiver who (stats suggest) can score with consistency.

Steve Smith, Baltimore vs Atlanta, $6700

Randall Cobb, Green Bay vs Carolina, $6700

Alshon Jeffery, Chicago vs Miami, $6600

Five Mid-Priced Wide Receivers

Brandon Marshall, Chicago vs Miami, $6300 – Our only task this week in relation to Marshall is figuring out how healthy he is. As he gets more removed from his ankle sprain, we can gain more and more confidence that he’s closer to 100 percent. It helps that he posted six catches for 113 yards last week, although it’s concerning that Marshall has only one score in the past four games.

 

DeSean Jackson, Washington vs Tennessee, $6300 – Jackson was very clearly underpriced last week such that he was in play in all league types. The problem at this price is that Jackson doesn’t offer a high floor, yet his upside is somewhat capped as well due to the Washington offense and his inability to contribute in the red zone. He has scored on just nine of 69 red zone targets during his career.

 

Brian Quick, St. Louis vs Seattle, $6000 – We finally saw Quick come back to reality last week with his first finish outside of the top 30 all year. That game was against the Niners, though, and now the Rams’ receiver gets a Seahawks defense that, for whatever reason, has been quite mediocre this year. I still think Quick is probably overpriced here, but I like Austin Davis enough to give him some consideration in tournaments.

 

Emmanuel Sanders, Denver vs San Francisco, $5900 – Sanders’ usage was much higher than I thought it would be least week. The matchup was a really easy one against the Jets, but now Sanders is much cheaper at just $5900. His production seems to be less tied to the quality of the opposing defense because of the type of targets he receives. I’m having trouble figuring out how popular Sanders will be in the Millionaire Maker, but I kind of like him in cash games.

 

Mike Wallace, Miami at Chicago, $5900 – To me, Wallace is a player who is very similar to Jackson in that he has a really low floor, yet his ceiling isn’t all that high, either. If you look at Wallace’s career game log, you see just a handful of two-touchdown games or otherwise elite performances.

The Miami speedster has managed to score in four of five games this year, but that rate won’t keep up. I definitely think there’s more upside than usual in this matchup, but overall Wallace isn’t the type of receiver that I generally target.

Five Others to Consider

Golden Tate, Detroit vs New Orleans, $5900

Kelvin Benjamin, Carolina at Green Bay, $5600

Andre Johnson, Houston at Pittsburgh, $5200

Pierre Garcon, Washington vs Tennessee, $5000

Michael Floyd, Arizona at Oakland, $5000

As long as Carson Palmer plays, Floyd is probably underpriced here. Oakland’s run defense has been horrible this year, but I still see Arizona trying to attack them through the air. In his two games, Palmer has averaged over 40 passing attempts; Floyd scored in one and had 119 yards in the other.

 

Five Value Wide Receivers

Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona at Oakland, $4800 – I think that Fitzgerald’s price actually adds some value to Floyd in GPPs because most people who want to use one of the Arizona receivers will probably try to save a little cash on Fitz. I think that both of the receivers are very much in play, even as a double-handcuff QB-WR-WR stack. The pricing makes sense and you can get access to a potentially underrated offense with Palmer back in the mix for a very cheap price.

 

Andre Holmes, Oakland vs Arizona, $4800 – I’m a little disappointed that Holmes’ price isn’t a bit higher, actually. I covered the Cowboys for a bit while Holmes was in Dallas, and I had a really good idea that he was a highly talented player who Dallas would overlook and let get away. He is, and they did. I really like Holmes in Oakland and I’d play him even if he were $2000 more expensive this week, so the fact that he’s so cheap is perhaps a negative in tournaments because he will likely be one of the most popular receiver choices.

 

Keenan Allen, San Diego vs Kansas City, $4600 – Who would have thought we’d get to the point that the San Diego offense would be one of the league’s best, yet Allen would be $4600 in Week 7? Allen doesn’t have a touchdown this year, but I’m still on board. I just have a hard time believing an offense as talented as that in San Diego is going to continue to roll without utilizing their best receiver.

 

DeAndre Hopkins, Houston at Pittsburgh, $4600 – Hopkins is a really talented player whose skill set seems to be getting wasted in Houston. I don’t love the quarterback situation, but I don’t think the Steelers’ defense is as good as advertised and I’m having trouble getting away from Hopkins at this cheap price.

 

Allen Robinson, Jacksonville vs Cleveland, $4600 – Robinson was my favorite receiver in the 2014 NFL Draft and he’s quietly been very consistent since jumping into the starting lineup. Over the past four games, Robinson has at least five catches in every contest. Even though he’s an efficient red zone receiver, I think Jacksonville’s lack of offensive upside limits Robinson’s GPP value, but I will consider him in cash games this week when I want to go heavy at quarterback and running back.

Five Others to Consider

Anquan Boldin, San Francisco at Denver, $4500

Torrey Smith, Baltimore vs Atlanta, $4400

Marques Colston, New Orleans at Detroit, $4300

Roddy White, Atlanta at Baltimore, $4100

Justin Hunter, Tennessee at Washington, $3700

You thought I’d get through this without mentioning my man? Hell no!

ALL THE HUNTER IN WEEK 7!